🔍 Read the full analysis: Singapore Layoffs And AI Fears: How To Make Sense Of The Data on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
Get audio and creator gear delivered free with Prime
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
- Member-only deals all year
TL;DR
Singapore recorded 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly count since late 2020, while total employment grew by 27,700. Officials identify business reorganisation as the main reported driver; separately, graduate employment outcomes have weakened, but the available data does not establish AI as the cause.
Singapore recorded 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total since late 2020, according to preliminary figures released by the Ministry of Manpower on October 30. The rise comes as the job market presents two different pressures: employers are restructuring and cutting some experienced workers, while graduates are finding fewer permanent jobs; the published figures do not identify AI as the main cause of layoffs.
Retrenchments increased from 4,620 in the second quarter and 3,670 in the third quarter of 2025. The last higher quarterly total was 5,640 in the fourth quarter of 2020. Despite the increase, the retrenchment rate remained at 2.0 per 1,000 employees. The advance release is preliminary; the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) is due to publish fuller sector and re-entry details in mid-December.
Employment grew by 27,700 in the quarter, more than twice the 11,400 recorded in the previous quarter, while the overall unemployment rate stayed at 2.0% in September. MOM said layoffs remained elevated in selected outward-oriented sectors, including information and communications, financial services and manufacturing, and that business reorganisation was the main driver. Services accounted for about 4,000 retrenchments, manufacturing 700 and construction 100.
The available evidence also distinguishes layoffs from difficulty entering the workforce. In the second quarter, 3,950 of 4,620 retrenched workers were professionals, managers, executives or technicians, according to the full labour-market report. Separately, among job-seeking graduates from Singapore’s six public universities, 83.4% of the 2025 cohort found work within six months, down from 87.1%. The share in full-time permanent jobs fell to 74.4% from 79.4%; arts, design and media graduates recorded a 50% employment rate.
Infographic 01 · The numbers
Singapore's layoffs climb to a near six-year high
Retrenchments have risen in each of the last five quarters while employment kept growing. The official reason is restructuring.
Retrenchments per quarter
Number of employees laid off · selected quarters · rounded to the nearest 10
3Q 2026 by sector
Main driver: business reorganisation · elevated in information and communications, financial services, manufacturing
Mixed signals for the next quarter
Share of firms, August → September 2026
- Expect to hire in the next 3 months30.5% → 42.3%
- Expect to raise wages16.9% → 19.9%
- Expect to retrench2.8% → 3.1%MOM: “emerging weaknesses … that warrant close monitoring”
The economy grew 5.9% year on year in 2Q 2026 (MTI). Rising layoffs in a growing economy point to restructuring rather than a collapse in demand. The 3Q figures are preliminary; the full report follows in mid-December 2026.
Sources: MOM Labour Market Advance Release 3Q 2026, 30 Oct 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 2Q 2026, 21 Sep 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 1Q 2021 (4Q 2020 figure).
Powered by Thorsten Meyer AI
Two Pressures, Different Workers
The distinction matters because a rise in retrenchments does not, by itself, show that AI is replacing workers or that young people are bearing the brunt of layoffs. The reported second-quarter occupational breakdown instead places most retrenched workers among experienced professional and technical staff. At the same time, the graduate figures point to a more difficult entry into stable work, rather than a wave of graduate job losses.
For workers and employers, those are different challenges. A retrenched professional may need support to find a new role or move into another occupation; a new graduate may need more openings, work experience or a clearer route into permanent employment. Treating both trends as one AI-driven layoff story risks obscuring who is affected and what kind of support may help.
The figures also show why headline counts need context. Singapore added 27,700 jobs during the quarter even as retrenchments rose. That combination is consistent with workers being displaced as firms reorganise while other parts of the economy continue hiring. It does not make the layoffs less consequential for affected households, but it gives a more complete picture than the retrenchment total alone.
Products Worth Considering
Apple Watch Ultra 4 GPS + Cellular 49mm Smartwatch
Bose SoundLink Flex Bluetooth Speaker (2nd Gen), Black
Apple Watch SE 3 GPS 40mm Smartwatch
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
What Singapore’s Data Measures
The 4,800 figure comes from MOM’s Labour Market Advance Release, published October 30. It counts retrenchments, the local term for layoffs, and compares the preliminary third-quarter total with earlier quarters. The rate of 2.0 per 1,000 employees offers another measure: it remained unchanged even as the number of affected workers increased.
The more detailed occupational and reason data cited here comes from MOM’s second-quarter report, published September 21, rather than the preliminary third-quarter release. In that second-quarter breakdown, 3,950 workers were PMETs. The source material describes restructuring as the main reason reported by employers, but those figures should not be treated as a complete explanation of every third-quarter job loss.
AI remains part of the public debate, but the source material says MOM’s layoff statistics do not have a separate category for AI-related retrenchments. When the ministry asked firms directly in April, 6.2% of AI-adopting firms said they had cut headcount after adopting AI. That is a survey response about firms, not a count of all workers displaced by AI, and it does not establish that AI caused Singapore’s latest rise in retrenchments.
The regional picture is also mixed. The International Labour Organization estimates that about 80 million Southeast Asian workers are in jobs with some exposure to generative AI, while saying it sees no evidence so far of large-scale job losses. It has reported faster declines in youth employment in highly exposed jobs than in overall employment in the Philippines and Thailand. Exposure to a technology, however, is not the same as a confirmed job loss caused by it.
““The bottom rung of the career ladder” may break.”
— Prime Minister Lawrence Wong
What the Figures Cannot Show
The third-quarter figures are preliminary, and the detailed report due in mid-December may add information on sectors and workers’ return to employment. The available release does not establish how many of the 4,800 retrenchments involved AI, or whether AI played any role in individual firms’ restructuring decisions.
It is also unclear from these figures how many retrenched workers quickly found new jobs, how their pay changed, or how long their job searches lasted. The graduate employment results cover outcomes within six months for job-seeking graduates; they do not by themselves explain why employment rates fell or show how much of the change is linked to AI, economic conditions or the mix of available jobs.
Claims that AI is already causing large-scale job losses would go beyond the evidence presented here. The survey finding that 6.2% of AI-adopting firms reported cutting headcount after adoption does not identify the number of workers affected, establish that AI was the sole cause, or provide a direct estimate of all AI-related job losses.
Full Labour Report Due December
MOM’s full third-quarter labour-market report is expected in mid-December. Its sector breakdown and information on re-entry rates should clarify where retrenchments occurred and what happened to affected workers after losing their jobs. Those details may help determine whether the rise is concentrated in particular industries or reflects a wider change.
For now, readers can watch both retrenchments and hiring indicators rather than treating either as a complete measure of labour-market health. MOM reported that the share of firms expecting to hire in the next three months rose from 30.5% in August to 42.3% in September, while the share expecting to retrench edged up from 2.8% to 3.1%. The next releases will show whether those plans translate into jobs or further cuts.
Further evidence will also be needed to assess AI’s effect on employment, including whether employers directly attribute specific workforce changes to its adoption and how those changes affect workers over time. Until then, the most supportable reading is narrower: retrenchments are rising, restructuring is the main reported driver, and graduates face weaker employment outcomes, but the data does not prove that AI caused either trend.
Key Questions
How many people were retrenched in Singapore in the third quarter of 2026?
MOM reported 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter. The figure is preliminary and was released on October 30.
Does the data show that AI caused the increase in layoffs?
No. MOM said business reorganisation was the main driver of retrenchments. The published statistics do not have a separate AI-related layoff category, so they do not establish how many job losses, if any, were caused by AI.
Are graduates being laid off in large numbers?
The cited occupational breakdown indicates that most second-quarter retrenchments were among professionals, managers, executives and technicians. The graduate data shows weaker employment outcomes for the 2025 cohort, which points to a tougher path into work rather than proof of large-scale graduate layoffs.
When will more detailed third-quarter data be available?
MOM is expected to publish its full third-quarter labour-market report in mid-December 2026, with more sector detail and information on workers’ re-entry into employment.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
