Agentic Commerce and Affiliate Marketing: How AI‑Powered Shopping Bots Are Reshaping Digital Performance Marketing

Introduction

Online commerce is entering a profound agentic era. Instead of clicking links and visiting web shops, consumers increasingly ask conversational assistants (ChatGPT, Google’s AI Mode, Microsoft Copilot, Perplexity, etc.) to find, compare and buy products for them. These assistants can check stock, process payment and confirm orders without ever taking the user to a merchant’s website. OpenAI’s Instant Checkout and the underlying Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), Google’s competing Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), Perplexity’s Buy with Pro, and PayPal/Stripe integrations illustrate the speed at which agentic commerce is being commercialisedaffiversemedia.comexplodingtopics.com.

For affiliate businesses, this shift is both an existential threat and a new opportunity. Traditional affiliate revenue relies on click‑through attribution—a visitor arrives via an affiliate link, triggers a cookie, and purchases. When the entire journey happens within a chat interface, that click never occurs. How will publishers be paid for their influence? Who benefits from zero‑click commerce? This report synthesises research from industry analyses, payments companies, affiliate networks and retailers to explain how agentic commerce is impacting affiliates and offers strategies to thrive in the machine‑mediated market.

What is agentic commerce?

Agentic commerce uses AI agents to perform parts of or the entire shopping journey for consumers. The mechanics are:

1. Intent capture – A shopper asks a bot: “best ergonomic office chair under €300”. The agent summarises user needs, budgets and preferences.
2. Intelligent curation – The agent searches product feeds containing structured metadata (price, ratings, stock, shipping, loyalty perks). It returns a shortlist of suitable items ranked on relevancecoalitiontechnologies.com.
3. In‑chat checkout – When a product supports instant checkout, a “Buy” button appears; with one tap the agent completes the order by sending a tokenised payment to the merchant. Stripe’s open‑source ACP issues a single payment token for a specific cart; the merchant processes the payment and returns confirmationpaymentsdive.com. Google’s AP2 uses cryptographic mandates to encode user intent and authorise payments across multiple agentsmartech.org.
4. Fulfilment and feedback – The merchant ships the order and the agent provides shipping updates. Over time, agents learn from reviews and optimise future recommendationsstriped-giraffe.com.

The shopper never visits the affiliate’s website, and the agent (not the user) negotiates price, loyalty perks or discountskantar.com. This is the essence of zero‑click commerce.

Adoption and growth signals

• Traffic explosion – Adobe Analytics data showed a 4,700 % increase in traffic from AI chats to retail sites over the past yearpaymentsdive.com. Generative‑AI‑driven visits doubled every two months through March 2025 and were up 1,200 % year‑over‑yearadventureppc.com. AI‑referred shoppers stay on sites longer and bounce lessadventureppc.com.
• Retailer referral share – ChatGPT now drives around 20 % of referral clicks to Walmart, >20 % to Etsy, nearly 15 % to Target and 10 % to eBaydigiday.com. Roughly 2 % of all ChatGPT queries involve shopping (~50 million daily queries)forbes.com.
• Industry adoption – More than 1 million Shopify merchants are preparing to join ACPcoalitiontechnologies.com. PayPal announced its wallet will work inside ChatGPT and Perplexity by 2026explodingtopics.comnewsroom.paypal-corp.com. Retailers like Walmart, Target and Etsy publicly support agentic commerce, while Amazon is building its own AI assistant (Rufus) and blocking external AI crawlersdigiday.com.
• Future projections – Gartner predicts that by 2028 machine customers will handle 20 % of digital storefront interactionskantar.com. Ark Invest estimates agentic AI could generate US$9 trillion in e‑commerce sales by decade’s endretailtouchpoints.com. McKinsey forecasts that agentic commerce will orchestrate US$3–5 trillion in global retail revenue by 2030mckinsey.com.

These numbers confirm that agentic commerce is not a niche experiment but a structural shift.

How agentic commerce threatens traditional affiliate models

1  Loss of click‑through attribution and traffic

Agentic commerce compresses discovery, evaluation and purchase into a single conversation. A user sees an answer, selects a product and checks out inside ChatGPT. The visit never touches the affiliate’s site, so no tracking cookie is set. Partnerize warns that 60 % of searches now end without a clickaffiversemedia.com. Some brands report 5 % drops in paid search click‑through rates and 20 % decreases in organic CTR among younger demographicsaffiversemedia.com. As AI tools aggregate, the classic formula of “publish comparison content → insert affiliate links → collect commission” loses visibility and trafficpracticalecommerce.com.

2  Zero‑click attribution crisis

Because conversions happen inside chat or through voice assistants, most affiliate networks cannot record them. Affiverse notes that current tracking solutions cannot capture ChatGPT‑originated purchases, leading to misreported ROI and budget reallocationsaffiversemedia.com. Partnerize calls this the zero‑click funnel and warns that traditional last‑click models are “increasingly obsolete”affiversemedia.com. Without visibility, advertisers may mistakenly cut investment in affiliates, even though affiliate content is influencing AI decisions.

3  Competition from AI platforms acting as “super affiliates”

Payments firms and AI assistants are positioning themselves as intermediaries between merchants and consumers. Nationwide Payment Systems describes how AI platforms like ChatGPT, Perplexity and Copilot become super affiliates, capturing intent, curating products and monetising conversionsnationwidepaymentsystems.com. These platforms have scale (thousands of product queries per day), trust (users believe AI is unbiased) and frictionless purchase flowsnationwidepaymentsystems.com. Affiliate marketers now compete not just with other publishers but with the assistant itself.

4  Compressed funnels and the death of banners

Kantar’s analysis shows that when agents shop, banners fade and metadata winskantar.com. Agents scrape product APIs rather than images or flashy ads; structured data becomes a brand’s creative asset. Retail media networks (RMNs) may no longer charge on a cost‑per‑thousand (CPM) basis but shift to agent‑fuelled conversions and affiliate‑like revenue sharingkantar.com. Brands will need to tag every SKU with price, size, ingredient and loyalty perks so agents can parse it—if an agent can’t read the data, it can’t buy the itemkantar.com.

5  Risk to training data and authenticity

Worldpay warns of a technical paradox: as agents siphon shoppers away from forums, reviews and blogs, the authentic training data that powers LLMs could degrade, making agents less helpfulworldpay.com. If AI models cannibalize the very content they rely on, trust and relevance may erode. This underlines why affiliate publishers—who create original reviews and community discussions—remain critical to the ecosystem.

Industry responses and emerging solutions

Affiliate networks push for recognition

• APMA’s Voice of the Affiliate Nation: Affiliate leaders warn that instant checkout flows bypass clicks but note that affiliates contribute over 90 % of the sources that ChatGPT citestheapma.co.uk. CJ’s CEO argues that affiliates are the trust layer for AI commerce and must be rewardedtheapma.co.uk. Rebecca McNiven of Silverbean emphasises that product reviews and comparison content will remain essential even without click‑outstheapma.co.uk.
• Partnerize’s VantagePoint: launched in October 2025, it reconstructs journeys and attributes influence even when no click occursaffiversemedia.com. Early adopters like Shopify and HubSpot see adapting to zero‑click measurement as an essential survival strategyaffiversemedia.com. The tool uses server‑side data to determine when AI‑surfaced content drives downstream conversions, enabling equitable compensation for affiliatesaffiversemedia.com.
• Affiliate marketers embrace AI: Affiverse’s research shows 67 % of affiliates are already implementing AI to improve content or operationsaffiversemedia.com. However, leaders stress that human relationships and trustworthy content remain centralaffiversemedia.com.

Retail media networks retool pricing and data

Kantar predicts that RMNs may stop charging for impressions and clicks, shifting to agent‑driven conversions and affiliate‑like revenue sharingkantar.com. Brands should prepare for budget models like cost‑per‑agent conversion and ask for dashboards showing how often the brand was considered versus chosenkantar.com. The agency outlines six disruptions: banners fade, negotiation replaces persuasion, loyalty data becomes currency, CPMs decline, everything connects across channels, and media buying is by and for AIkantar.comkantar.comkantar.com.

Payment providers and AI platforms shape monetization

Stripe and OpenAI’s ACP, Google’s AP2 and PayPal’s agentic programs demonstrate various monetization models:

• Merchant commissions/affiliate fees: Sam Altman suggested ChatGPT could take a 2 % affiliate fee for in‑chat purchasesdbbnwa.com. Worldpay notes that seller‑side models (sponsored listings, affiliate fees, merchant commissions) generate merchant value but risk making agents seem like “ad wrappers”worldpay.com.
• Consumer subscriptions: buyer‑side models (e.g., ChatGPT Plus or Perplexity Pro) may help maintain neutrality but limit scaleworldpay.com.
• Hybrid approaches: combining modest subscriptions with transparent commissions could balance incentivesworldpay.com.

Big‑tech counter‑strategies

Amazon has launched Rufus, an in‑app AI assistant that keeps product search and checkout within its walled gardendigiday.com. Google’s AI Mode/Help Me Shop integrates a generative assistant into search results, curating products from its 50‑billion‑item Shopping Graph and letting users tap “buy for me” to complete purchases with Google Payretaildive.comvibecodetimes.com. These moves indicate that all major platforms are vying to own the agentic checkout and associated data.

How affiliates can adapt and thrive

1. Invest in AI‑readable, authoritative content (AIO) – Affiliate articles should be structured into FAQs, comparison tables, and bullet‑pointed insights. Nationwide Payment Systems emphasises that AI optimisation (AIO) uses schema markup and concise, high‑value answersnationwidepaymentsystems.com. Use metadata (product specs, pricing, availability, returns policies) so agents can parse and cite your contentkantar.com. Human expertise and authenticity remain invaluable because AI models need trustworthy sourcesworldpay.com.
2. Publish product feeds and enable instant checkout – Merchants and affiliate sites should integrate with ACP/AP2 so their offers are eligible for agentic checkout. Provide clean inventory data, accurate pricing, shipping options and loyalty perks; being the primary seller of a product boosts visibilitycoalitiontechnologies.com.
3. Shift from click‑tracking to event attribution – Implement server‑to‑server tracking and unique voucher codes to attribute sales that originate from AI agentstheapma.co.uk. Partnerize’s approach demonstrates that journey reconstruction is possible without clicksaffiversemedia.com. Affiliates should request reporting that shows when their content was cited and when conversions occur.
4. Negotiate for fair revenue share – As RMNs move to cost‑per‑agent conversions, affiliates must ensure their influence is recognised. Work with networks and merchants to define commission models that reflect AI‑driven sales. Seek inclusion in loyalty programmes so consumers earn cashback or points when buying through AI—a key trust booster (75 % of consumers said they would trust AI recommendations more if they received a benefit)retailtouchpoints.com.
5. Diversify beyond search – Build presence on social platforms, newsletters, podcasts and communities where AI cannot fully replace human interaction. Participate in Q&A forums to maintain fresh, authentic data that AI models rely onworldpay.com. Lily Ray of Amsive notes that being active on social and producing voice‑driven content can help brands stay visible in AI Overviewsaffiliatesummit.com.
6. Monitor AI recommendations and brand representation – Regularly query ChatGPT, Google AI Mode and other assistants to see how they summarise your niche. Correct misinformation and ensure your brand and content are described accurately. Use tools to monitor brand mentions within AI answersnationwidepaymentsystems.com.
7. Prepare for performance‑based retail media – Kantar suggests RMNs will treat data quality as the new packaging and autonomous media agents as key account managerskantar.com. Brands should build promotional APIs for real‑time offers, sync loyalty benefits, and allow agents to adjust media spend based on real‑time stock and metadata qualitykantar.comkantar.com.

Future outlook and ethical considerations

The speed of adoption implies that agentic commerce will be mainstream within a few years. By 2028, one in five digital storefront interactions may involve a machine customerkantar.com, and agentic AI could generate trillions in salesretailtouchpoints.com. Affiliate marketing is uniquely positioned because its incentive alignment—payment only on conversion—matches the agentic paradigmretailtouchpoints.com. However, the industry must avoid pitfalls:

• Transparency and trust – Agents must disclose when recommendations are monetised. Worldpay emphasises hybrid models with transparent ranking logic and audit trailsworldpay.com.
• Data privacy and ethics – Tokenisation, passkeys and privacy‑preserving protocols (ACP, AP2) are essential to protect shoppers. Agents must not overshare personal data or make purchases without explicit consentexplodingtopics.commartech.org.
• Sustaining content ecosystems – If AI agents extract value from human communities without feeding back, training data will degradeworldpay.com. Support and credit human creators; ensure affiliate revenues continue to fund quality journalism and niche expertise.

Conclusion

Agentic commerce compresses the shopping funnel from search → click → cart into intent → answer → purchase. This shift challenges the very foundation of traditional affiliate marketing by eliminating clicks and redirecting the customer journey into proprietary AI interfaces. Yet it also aligns closely with the performance‑based ethos of the affiliate model. Affiliates can remain vital by focusing on trust‑building content, structured data, new attribution methods and fair revenue sharing. In an era where AI bots negotiate on our behalf, those who adapt early—optimising for machine readability while preserving human authenticity—will capture tomorrow’s commerce. Those who cling to the old click‑through paradigm may see their influence vanish into the zero‑click void.